A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
