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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd